The event will take place THIS THURSDAY in:
Aula Magna, Maria de Molina 13, Thursday, 3rd of July, from 5.00 pm to 8.00 pm.
There will be limited seats (164 PLACES)- served on a first register first serve basis (see below).
The session will be held in English.
According to our Club statements, this new event is another chance for IE students and alumni to gain a deep understanding of the different alternative careers in Banking after their Programs or once decision is made to change a career path.
PE is in a very special moment as the firms have a lot of investment opportunities but they have to search really hard for financing, as all the banks are short of liquidity, would this mean that they will have to finance the operations with more equity?...Come and find out the solution!!!
The program, issues and speakers will be:
5.00 p.m. INTRODUCTION
5.10 - 6.00 p.m. AN OVERVIEW OF THE PE PROCESS
1). First Block: Carlos Santana. ADVENT INTERNATIONAL
· Looking for opportunities (Investment strategies)
· Structuring the deal
2). Second Block: Jorge Mendoza. AMBERS&CO
3). Third Block: Leopoldo Reaño. GALA CAPITAL
· Day-to-day management.
· Exit strategies.
· Specific case/deal of a failure.
6.00-6.30 p.m. BREAK
6.30 p.m. INTRODUCTION OVER THE 3 TOPICS TO BE TREATED
TOPIC 1: How did the crisis affect the sector? Opportunities in the liquidity crisis. With Claudio Aguirre, ALTAMAR CAPITAL
TOPIC 2: The added value of the funds of funds of PE. With Ignacio Sarría, ARCANO CAPITAL
TOPIC 3: What can a PE firm do better than the current management? How to manage a new business bought by the firm? With Gonzalo Fernández, INVESTINDUSTRIAL
Q&A
The event will be led by [moderator pending to be appointed].
Who should attend? All those students regarding the possibility of working in PE, all those interested in the area and any of them who want to learn more about PE as a general finance background. Students from any program are welcome.
El 26 de Mayo de 2008, el banco UBS dio una charla en el IE Business School sobre análisis y predicción de mercados, pero en este caso en vez de mercados, sobre la actual Eurocopa 2008 de Suiza y Austria.
En el evento tomaron parte: por parte de UBS, D. Roberto L. Ruiz Scholtes, que se encargo de dar a conocer el proceso de análisis y predicción que luego UBS aplicó al mundo del futbol y por parte de IE Business School, el profesor D. Eduardo Fernandez-Cantelli, profesor de Marketing de IE Business School.
El profesor Fernandez-Cantelli hizo una introducción al mundo del futbol, previa a la exposición de U BS, en la expuso las ventajas y desventajas del cambio de puntuación en los partidos. El sistema de puntuación, que paso a ser: 3 puntos ganador, 1 empate y 0 el perdedor tenía como objetivo incentivar a los clubes y jugadores para que hubiese menos empates de los habituales. Es decir, motivar que hubiese más goles, que son la base de este deporte. El resultado de mas goles tendría como objetivo incentivar el ESPECTACULO!! Esto permitiría que la gente asistiese mas a los eventos y los clubes tendrían mejores resultados económicos. Por otro lado esto permitiría más incertidumbre y que las apuestas fuesen menos fáciles de predecir ya que si los jugadores estarían más motivados y si se juegan más en cada partido, habrá menos empates y las probabilidades disminuyen.
Este sistema de puntuación se empezó a utilizar en Inglaterra por primera vez en 1981 y se ha ido implantando por toda Europa, hasta ser el sistema de puntuación usado en casi todas las ligas de Europa y por supuesto en esta fase final de la Eurocopa.
El resultado de este cambio de puntuación fue que los cambios no se hicieron notar, según los datos del profesor Fdz-Cantelli, pero se llego a una conclusión, que esto podría ayudar a la ESPERANZA DE VICTORIA de los equipos. Que es esto? Literatura, Keller: La probabilidad de que un equipo gane depende de la media de goles que los dos equipos marcan por partido. Equipo A: 1,3 goles/partido. Equipo B: 1,1 goles. También se puede considerar en qué momento del partido se meten esta media de goles...esto ayuda para la estrategia de cada equipo en cada momento del partido.
Después de esta introducción, D. Roberto L. Ruiz Scholtes, de UBS, hablo sobre los programas de regresión multi-variable y los procesos matemáticos, como los que usan para los tipos de interés, bonos, divisas etc... en UBS. Aquí incluyen variables monetarias y económicas, factores estacionales, primas de riesgo, análisis técnico y sentimientos, para predecir los mercados.
Una vez que se tiene un modelo base como el de UBS, solo hay que meterle unas variables diferentes para predecir el resultado sobre un evento u objetivo concreto. En este caso hablamos de la Eurocopa 2008 de Suiza y Austria.
Por qué hace UBS una predicción de la Eurocopa? Porque ya en el mundial de Alemania 2006, predijeron que ganaría Italia, usando un modelo similar y acertaron. Después de aquel éxito, este año han hecho una nueva apuesta sobre quien ganara esta actual Eurocopa. Quien será el vencedor?
Para hacer posible esta predicción había que meter una serie de variables, unas pocas de muchas son:
1). Factores socio-económicos
· Población país.
· PIB.
2). Factores deportivos
· Número de jugadores federados.
· Rendimiento de los jugadores: goles, titularidad etc..
· Cuando han acabado sus ligas: par ver el estado de forma de los jugadores.
· Ranking FIFA.
· Experiencia del país en competiciones de este tipo.
· Ventaja de campo.
· Enfrentamientos anteriores.
· Etc...
Después de explicar a los asistentes cómo funcionaba cada una de estas variables, se procedió a dar a conocer los resultados...
RESULTADOS según UBS:
On the 16th of April 2008 D. Ignacio Dolz de Espejo, Manager of the Morgan Stanley SR Fund, came to IE Business School invited by the IE Finance Club to talk about how social investments can be an option in the financial world, and that people who care about this issue have an opportunity to invest outside of the traditional investing world.
Mr. Ignacio Dolz has worked for several years in Morgan Stanley. Now, MS bank has been sold to Grupo LaCaixa, and therefore the fund will probably change the name in the short-term.
Mr. Dolz started talking about the creation of the fund and its history. The fund was created by Intermon Oxfam (ONG) and AB Asesores (small boutique bought by MS), and with the help of an ethic committee they launched it in March 1999.
The fund was created with an objective: "to promote the companies' social responsibility as well as to obtain capital growth...."
Part of its management fee goes to ONGs, the client can choose which one. (Intermón Oxfam, Cáritas Española, Cruz Roja, Médicos Sin Fronteras, Entreculturas, Alboan and the Fundación para la Lucha contra la Esclerosis Múltiple.)
The fund selects the companies based on three criteria:
1. The Ethical and SR investment policies of the companies.
2. The Ethical Committee pre-selects the investment universe.
3. Company investigation tools. (External and Internal).
To do these studies they use instruments like EIRIS (Ethical Investment Research Services). EIRIS uses 350 ethic and environmental indicators in 40 subsectors to classify the companies.
The fund searches for companies that protect human rights, follow the pharmaceutical deontological code, the Children's milk International Code, and are against armament, nuclear and tobacco.
The fund also uses evaluating criteria: the committee assigns valuation to aspects as: Corporate Governance, environmental policies, human rights and stakeholder issues.
After having passed all this filters the Strategic Committee decides which stocks will form part of the fund and the specific weight inside the portfolio. Here they use only the company´s financial results, ratios and any financial instrument that helps them to decide between two companies of the same sector.
The fund was created with a weight of 25% Equity and 75% in fixed income. The variation of the equity was not very high as before (1999) the law did not allow many changes in the structure of the fund. Now a day Mr. Dolz said, it is better to have a 100% Equity Fund, as all the (developed) country debt is supposed to be ethical and also because funds can now a day´s change the percentage of equity and fixed income.
The investment of the Equity part is invested in companies from all over the world. (Vodafone, Enagas, Saipem...etc)
Compared with other funds like private equity or hedge funds or pure equity funds or even pension plans, this SRI Fund manages a very small quantity of money, but it is the start of a new option for investors. The team that work at this fund have demonstrated that ethical profits are possible and that people are thinking more on this issue.
From the IE Finance Club would like to thank Mr. Ignacio Dolz for his seminar and hope him great success in the future development of the SRI Fund.
The presentation was titled "Reasons and Aftermath of the Financial Crisis", and provided an overview of the current global financial and economic situation, the causes of the recent circumstances and predictions for the future.
As a starting point, Mr. de la Torre said that the German people have been significant net savers in recent years. Germans have poured large sums of capital in the Chinese market, which is a major reason why the Chinese have had so much money to invest around the world, and specifically in the USA and its bond market.
Let´s briefly cover the circumstances surrounding the current financial situation, particularly the lack of control in the financial market. Hyman P. Minsky, a Wall Street economist developed a theory in the 60´s that was launched by him in the 80s when the markets were deregulated and the state encouraged investors to take greater risks in hopes of spurring innovation. Minsky believed that Wall Street encouraged businesses and individuals to take on too much risk,, generating ruinous boom-and-bust cycles. The only way to break this pattern was for the government to step in and regulate the lending practices. A few months ago, at the beginning of the crisis, we could see a similar lack of control in financial markets and how the US government announced the creation of new regulatory measures. This included giving more authority to the Federal Reserve, as Minsky's theory recommended.
We also need to know what a Credit Default Swap is. A simple explanation: passing the debt to a third party. In the case of firms or banks, the debt holders sell loans from their customers to an outside investor. A public debate ensued between two famous figures, one in favour and the other against the wisdom of such a policy. Alan Greenspan believed it was good for the economy as the risks were diversified between more people and more countries. On the other hand, Warren Buffet opposed it because it generated overly risky decision-making.
How does it work?
A person in (e.g) Tulsa, Oklahoma, without a job or future expectations of income wants to buy a house. The real estate agencies have two types of clients: Prime and No-Prime (subprime), this person would be SUBPRIME. When agencies have too many subprime mortgages, they make a pooled instrument known as a structured investment vehicle (SIV) and sell it to banks or other entities, so it is the new owner who has the right to collect the debt from clients.
Banks securitize the mortgage packages and create a bond with three ratings:
1) Good. AAA rating.
2) Medium.
3) Bad. This one will have a 3% default. S&P will give them AAA rating.
As a result, an unemployed mortgage holder at high risk of default is inadvertently folded into the AAA rating category. In fact, SIV buyers oftentimes had no means of properly assessing solvency or liquidity risks underlying such debt.
When the credit crisis began to explode, banks and other entities did not have the possibility to recover the debt and suffered from major losses. These unrecoverable holes were as big as $7 billion at Merrill-Lynch, and $8 billion at UBS, and led to a series of announcements that banks would write down large amounts of assets from their balance sheets.
As the banks could not recover their money, lost liquidity, and could not continue lending. This impacted the overall credit market when consumers who had to pay down debts (e.g. a car purchase) could not obtain additional credit lines from banks.
The banks will have to wait until they recover some cash before they resume lending, which will eventually help jumpstart the economy again. But the question is: How much time will it take to recover from such big write downs?
This liquidity crisis also affects the inter-bank lending markets. Previously, banks with more liquidity would loan money to others at a small premium. Now, however, banks are reluctant to or cannot lend, and no lending means no income to expand the credit market. A vicious cycle results.
In summary, the economy must wait until banks recover sufficient liquidity to restart lending (more safely). This should fuel real economic growth once again.
To this we have to add the impact of much higher crude oil prices, which makes all goods much more expensive at a moment when families are already struggling with mortgage interest payments. These two factors will lower consumption and may cause the economy to stagnate or even contract for several terms.
In Spain, the subprime crisis did not affect the banks as much as in other countries due to the limits established by regulators that mandated that the amount of subprime lending could not pass a specified limit.
On behalf of the IE Finance Club we would like to thank Mr. De la Torre for his excellent seminar on the reasons behind the crisis and we hope to count on him again in the future for another outstanding seminar.
¿Pasará España los Cuartos de Final?
UBS ha desarrollado un modelo capaz de predecir el ganador de la Eurocopa 2008. Asimismo, el Profesor Eduardo Fernandez-Cantelli abordará la "Competitividad de las Ligas Europeas".
FOTO EFE
La Conferencia se impartirá en español.
Lunes, 26 de mayo, 19:00 h, Aula Semicircular de María de Molina, 27
The event will take place in:
Tuesday April 29th, Classroom P-211 in C/ Pinar nº 18. From 19.00 to 20.00h.
There will be limited seats - first-come, first-served basis (see below).
The session will be in English.
Financial Accounting is the foundation for all the deals in the business world but nowadays we see complicated operations that demand a higher knowledge of this topic. In order to learn more about financial accounting and see practical examples, the Finance Club encourages you to come to this conference.
The event will be held by Mr. Jesús Pinelo, ex-student of the IE Business School and currently responsible for the accounting department in Union Fenosa Group, a listed Spanish energy company.